Haven’t seen a ton of long form content on this app, so I thought I’d use each Monday to post some of my deeper thoughts. Sometimes specific, sometimes more general. Today, we’re gonna talk about the state of The Hobby™:

A big topic this week is obviously going to be Fanatics Fest NYC and how it was more of a spectacle than a card show. I wasn’t there, but the videos have been all over. Huge celebrity buys, big pulls, and moments that all felt Truman Show staged. People have strong opinions on that event, and broader feelings on where the hobby is at in general, but allow me to share mine.

This all feels very… natural?

Any hobby that can sustain a decent market will eventually become hyperfinancialized. Doesn’t matter if it’s baseball cards, digital animal jpgs, or kids toys. The ability to make money doing something silly is too good of an arbitrage opportunity to pass up.

There’s no sense fighting it or being mad about it. I, personally, don’t buy much new product because I don’t enjoy the lottery aspect of it. Nor do I have the money to care whether Tom Brady’s $250,000 buy was authentic or not. Those are just parts of the hobby/business I don’t even partake in.

But new cards and products with overinflated values means the price of old cards has become more affordable, so that’s where I focus my time. Zig when others zag. It’s all cyclical, and eventually the bubble will come back to consume my part of the hobby again, and I’ll have to readjust. Is what it is. I just try to find enjoyment in what I’m doing, without caring much what everyone else is up to.

So where are we now in the cycle? I dunno for sure. It does feel like we’re somewhere near the top of the bubble though. May not be ready to pop just yet but Fanatics following around Livvy Dunne with a camera, Adin Ross pulling 1/1s, the Rizzler getting big hits from Gary V products… It’s definitely starting to feel like Steph Curry chiseling a Bored Ape ice sculpture in an FTX commercial.

Eventually though supply will outpace demand and everything will self-correct. Markets are undefeated in that respect. Till then, all you can do is find your place in what the market is giving you, adapt when it changes, and enjoy the ride.