Back when I started collecting cards—around 1995-1996—I encountered my first “hyped” prospect. For those unfamiliar, prospecting in the card hobby refers to the practice of buying early into a player’s career, often during their rookie season, with the hope they’ll become a star and their cards will increase in value. It’s essentially speculation—similar to investing in a promising stock.

Since I began collecting, most prospectors have ended up in the red. Almost always. It’s a cycle that repeats every year with each new draft class across all sports. Sure, some collectors manage to win the “hot potato” game that is prospecting, but they’re the exception, not the rule. And that brings me to my first experience with a hyped prospect who didn’t quite pan out.

Enter Antonio McDyess—nicknamed “Dice Man.” Drafted in 1995, he was viewed as one of the NBA’s next big stars. Michael Jordan had just returned from his baseball stint, and the league was in an identity crisis, searching for its next icon. Many collectors bet big on McDyess. His rookie cards were front and center at local shops and card shows, often carrying hefty price tags.

But it only took a year for that hype to crash. By 1996, prospectors had shifted focus to a new, stacked draft class featuring names like Allen Iverson and Kobe Bryant, paired with innovative new card sets like Topps Chrome and E-X 2000. Suddenly, no one cared about McDyess. His card values plummeted.

Now, to be fair, McDyess had a solid NBA career—15 seasons, an All-Star selection—but his cards are still worth just a few bucks. So, what happened? Simply put: he wasn’t the guy collectors were hoping for.

If you’re in the hobby to make money, take this as a cautionary tale. Don’t end up with a stack of McDyess rookies, hoping for a comeback that isn’t coming.

Pictured here is an Antonio McDyess UD Glass autographed card—a reminder to tread carefully when investing in the next big thing.