✍ The Collector’s Crossroads
by Brews & Breaks

Remember when grading used to be simple?
You’d send in a clean card, pray to the cardboard gods, and 60 business days later—boom, PSA 10. Money. Glory. Bragging rights.

Now?
You’re paying $28+ just to maybe get a $50 resale on a card you bought for $10… unless you hit that magical PSA 10. But wait—PSA 10s are only hitting at a 16% clip on some cards? So 1 in 6?

And that’s when you realize:
This might be the most expensive lottery ticket you’ve ever bought.

🎯 The False Hope of the Slab

Everyone online makes it sound easy:

"Just grade it and flip it, bro. Easy money."

Sure, if:

• You know what you’re looking for

• The surface isn’t scratched

• The centering wasn’t drawn by Picasso

• And PSA didn’t spill their coffee on your submission
  

Otherwise? That $10 card just became a $45 slab of disappointment.

📉 Let’s Crunch the Numbers (Before You Cry)

You bought a raw card for $10.
You pay $25 to grade it.
Total investment = $35.

PSA 9 resale: $50
PSA 10 resale: $200
Population odds: 1 PSA 10 for every 5 PSA 9s (aka 1-in-6 chance at gold)

Expected Outcome (Grading 6 Cards):

• 5x PSA 9 = $15 net profit each ($75 total)

• 1x PSA 10 = $165 profit

• Total profit: $240

• Total spent: $210

• Average profit per card: $40

Sounds great, right?

Except…

• If grading costs spike, margins disappear

• If you misjudge condition, you get an 8 and cry into your hobby box

• If PSA decides your card “smelled funny,” it’s a 7.5
  

🤔 So When IS It Worth Grading?

Honestly? Most of the time… it’s not.

Unless you:

• Know how to vet raw cards with a loupe and OCD precision

• Can get the card dirt cheap

• Already know the pop report

• Are playing the long game (rare, iconic cards)
  

Otherwise, you’re spinning the slab wheel.

📏 Will’s Personal Rule of Thumb

If I can’t at least double my total investment with a PSA 9, I’m out.

Let’s keep it real:

“Hope” is not a business model.

That $10 card with a $50 PSA 9 resale better bring me $70 after fees and grading, or I’m keeping it raw, sipping a cold one, and chalking it up to PC.

💀 Don’t Be That Guy

You know him. The guy who sends in 42 base rookies of a backup tight end hoping for PSA 10s…

Only to get 38 PSA 9s, 3 eights, and one “Evidence of Trimming” email from PSA.

Don’t be that guy.

🚨 Final Word: Raw Math > Raw Hype

Before you send in your next card, ask yourself:

• Can this double my investment at PSA 9?

• Am I gambling on a 10 to break even?

• Would this make sense if it came back a 9?
  

If the answer is “No,” then maybe, just maybe… keep it raw, enjoy the card, and stay out of the grading trap.

Because in today’s hobby, sometimes the best play…

Is not playing at all.

Want to see a grading calculator that actually tells you if it’s worth it?
Comment below or DM me. I might just build it.

Until next time,

Keep Sippin’ and Rippin’

— Will @ Brews & Breaks 🍻

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