🏀 Luka Dončić drops 51

His 2018 Prizm Silver RC → $390 (+41% in 14 days)

Meanwhile…

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander just broke a Wilt Chamberlain record, yet his 2018 Prizm Silver sits around $200 (-14%).

Same era.

Same card tier.

Very different hobby reactions.

Then we see the NFL effect…

🏈 Kyler Murray signs with Minnesota

His 2019 Prizm Silver PSA 10 jumps to $372 (+148% in 30 days).

And collectors are already noticing something else:

📦 2025 Prizm Black

❌ No true rookies

❌ Very limited draft prospects

Sometimes the biggest hobby signal is what isn’t in the product.

Curious what collectors think:

💬 If you had $400 right now, which card are you buying?

1⃣ Luka Silver

2⃣ SGA Silver

3⃣ Kyler Prizm

4⃣ Bowman Prospect

Confidence you can collect with.

Published March 09, 2026 | By Conor M, Director Of Partnerships, Collectors MD

The other day I came across a cute video of a kid at a card show asking an influencer if he could borrow $10. The kid promised to pay the influencer back after he invested in cards. Fast forward a bit, and it turns out the kid succeeded. He doubled his money and repaid the influencer with 10% interest.

That influencer, to his credit, let the kid keep the money. It was a sweet gesture, and it performed very well on YouTube. At the time I write this the video has nearly 700K likes, and it was posted about a month ago.

There are a few things to unpack here, but the big one is survivorship bias and how social media algorithms constantly push the winners to the top while burying the countless losses no one ever talks about. And that makes sense. We all want to see the one-of-one pull or someone make a 500% profit from a smart flip.

The stories that rise to the top are almost always the wins. The massive flips. The miracle pulls. The overnight successes. What we rarely see are the hidden losses; the boxes that went cold, the cards that never rebounded, or the moments when the gamble simply didn’t pay off. Over time, that distorted highlight reel can start to reshape what we believe to be the norm.

During WWII, the planes that returned from battle were the only ones engineers could study, so the visible bullet holes told an incomplete story. The aircrafts that never made it back carried the damage that mattered most. When it comes to collecting or investing, the same distortion happens. We see the wins that survived long enough to be shared, while the losses quietly disappear from view.

This can quietly distort how we interpret success. The more experienced you are in collecting (and in life), the easier survivorship bias is to spot. But if you’re young and impressionable, this can be a big problem.

My news feed recently has been pushing stories about Logan Paul’s $16.5M Pokémon card sale and Kevin O’Leary’s new diamond-encrusted necklace that contains a Jordan & Kobe Dual Logoman card Mr. Wonderful himself values at $20M. When headlines like that pop up in my feed, the FOMO sets in and before I know it I’m on eBay browsing cards, trying to convince myself there’s a “deal” waiting to be found.

Survivorship bias alone is misleading enough. But when you mix that in with the typical collector mindset, breaker hype, and the frictionless nature of buying, you have a recipe for disaster.

For those of you who don’t know what the collector mindset is, let me fill you in with my own. My inner monologue usually goes something like this: “If that guy [on social media] can do it, I can probably do it better. I see patterns that no one else sees, so this one CANNOT FAIL”. But man, those Ja Morant cards really didn’t pan out the way I thought they would. Maybe there’s still hope?

Grabbing the right card at the right time is an awesome feeling when you get it right, but it can feel excruciatingly painful when you get it wrong. Our brains are wired to chase that awesome feeling and find ways to justify those failures. The “if only”. The “maybe it will come back”. Or the old classic: “you can’t win ‘em all”.

What makes matters even worse is that losses hurt twice as much as gains, according to decades of behavioral economic theory. For more, check out the works of Daniel Kahneman or Richard Thaler. So even if we do somehow get back to even, our brains still don’t feel fully satisfied.

To put this in real terms, to feel “whole” after a $200 loss, we need to somehow find a way to flip that into a $200 gain. WTF?! That can be a hugely damaging cycle if you don’t see the writing on the wall early and take the appropriate steps to address it.

Somewhere along the way, the numbers stop making sense.

My advice for addressing the madness is pretty basic: slow down, take breaks, and don’t bury your losers. Keep them visible. Make your biggest loss the background of your phone. Get creative. There is no shame. We’ve all been there.

So the next time you see a video or read an article about a grail pull or a monster flip, take a minute to remind yourself that you aren’t seeing the L’s it took to get them there. You’re only seeing the W’s.

Survivorship bias is everywhere, and if you’re going to collect with intention, it’s a crucial concept to understand.

#CollectorsMD
When the only stories we see are the winners, it becomes dangerously easy to forget how many losses it took to get there.

—
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In this episode of The Collector’s Compass, Alyx sits down with one of his closest friends and a trusted voice from his personal and professional life, Eric Sterns, to unpack a question more people are asking quietly but few are addressing openly: when does investing stop being investing—and start behaving like gambling?

Eric is the Head of Corporate Development at Viant Technology, with extensive experience across investment banking, capital markets, M&A, and corporate finance. He deeply understands traditional investing, day trading, crypto markets, NFTs, and speculative assets—and like Alyx, he reentered the sports card hobby in early 2020, right as markets, collectibles, and risk-taking behaviors collided at full speed.

Together, Alyx and Eric explore how the last 5–6 years reshaped the way people interact with risk. From commission-free trading apps and 24/7 crypto markets to high-velocity live selling and breaking in the hobby, they examine how volatility, accessibility, and manufactured urgency have blurred the line between investing, speculation, and gambling-like behavior.

This conversation isn’t anti-investing and it isn’t anti-hobby. It’s about understanding behavior. Alyx and Eric discuss how many of the same psychological mechanics show up across markets and collecting: dopamine loops, loss-chasing, near misses, the illusion of control, and identity becoming tied to wins and losses. They unpack why so many people feel stress, shame, and financial harm—not because they’re reckless, but because modern systems are engineered to keep people engaged, activated, and chasing.

The episode also digs into the human side of financial harm. Alyx shares what he sees weekly through Collectors MD peer-support meetings, while Eric provides insight from a financial and corporate lens—helping translate market behavior into plain language that makes sense to everyday collectors and investors alike.

Rather than stopping at critique, the conversation turns toward solutions. Alyx and Eric talk about what real guardrails could look like across both investing and collecting—education, transparency, cooling-off mechanisms, and cultural shifts that allow people to slow down without shame. They explore how responsibility doesn’t mean killing growth or fun—it means protecting people long enough for passion to remain sustainable.

You’ll hear:

• How investing and trading can quietly mirror gambling mechanics.

• Why volatility impacts identity, not just finances.

• How the hobby’s boom followed the same emotional patterns as crypto and day trading.

• Why “personal responsibility” alone isn’t enough when systems are built for speed.

• What intentional engagement could look like across markets and collecting.

• How Collectors MD supports people navigating gambling-like harm beyond casinos and sportsbooks.

This episode offers clarity, nuance, and language for something many people feel but struggle to name. Whether you’re an investor, collector, trader, breaker, or someone who’s wondered why “fun” started to feel stressful, this conversation invites reflection without judgment.

Subscribe, share, and join the movement toward a hobby—and a financial culture—where awareness comes before impulse, and people matter more than performance.

Watch The Episode On YouTube

Learn More & Join The Movement:

Website: collectorsmd.com

Socials: bio.collectorsmd.com

Weekly Meetings: bit.ly/45koiMX

Contact: info@collectorsmd.com

YT: ‪@collectorsmd

IG: @collectorsmd

Follow Eric Sterns:

IG: @sternzo

LI: bit.ly/3MGQ27M

Help for Problem Gambling: Call or Text 800-GAMBLER

#CollectorsMD | #RipResponsibly | #CollectResponsibly

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLui5HRs0RY&t=2856s

Hello All

Just a quick one to say congrats to Lando Norris World Champ.

I am not a F1 collector, but had this numbered card from Topps 2022 097/199

Did anyone go in and buy on Lando for the title this year?

Cheers

Alan | UK

Published September 17, 2025 | By Alyx E, Founder of Collectors MD

What sells isn’t always what plays—and what plays isn’t always what holds value.

In a hobby engineered around hype and “the chase”, the market often prices narratives over performance. Like clockwork, every single season, a young, hyped starting QB is tagged with a speculation premium—regardless of the box score—or before they even step onto an NFL field. Modern day break culture amplifies it: drip-fed supply, endless highlights reels, and hope outpacing the hard data.

Meanwhile, veteran markets without a fresh storyline tend to soften—unless they’re in that rare unicorn tier—superstars, like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. That’s why proven starters like Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, and Matthew Stafford or even retired legends like Joe Montana, Dan Marino, and John Elway often trail young names such as Bryce Young, JJ McCarthy, and Michael Penix Jr.; the hobby consistently prices upside over past performance.

A few key takeaways to stay informed and ahead of the curve in your collecting journey:

• Youth + Starter + Hype = Liquidity.

• Narrative > Performance (until reality catches up, à la CJ Stroud, or a fresh crop of quarterbacks enter the league; Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart, etc.).

• Release cadence (Panini releasing an abundance of high end sets simultaneously) + influencer cycles (various break groups relentlessly pumping players like Trevor Lawrence) shape comps as much as if not more than on-field play.

Cards of young, unproven players selling north of $50K are the definition of speculation—superstar pricing for potential long before there’s even a résumé.

The card collecting hobby isn’t necessarily the problem; the gambling-like risk concentrates in and around break culture and prospect-chasing. Slower approaches—collecting meaningful PC pieces, set building, deliberate purchasing—are more intentional and far less volatile.

Here are a few questions to consider that can help you recalibrate as you navigate today’s fast-moving, hyper-competitive hobby landscape:

• Would I still want this card if the value was cut in half?

• Am I buying the player’s name—or the narrative I want to believe?

• Is this something I truly want and can afford—or am I just trying to keep up?

• If I couldn’t sell for a year—or five—would I be happy owning it regardless of how the player pans out?

For intentional collecting, keep these guiding principles in play:

• Pre-commit budgets and cooldowns before live streams.

• When you feel the urge to chase, choose a “no-spend action” (organize a binder, update inventory, list a card to sell, review the Collectors MD Recovery Guide, or text someone who holds you accountable) and set a 24-hour pause before any future purchase.

• Track outcomes: “hype” buys vs. “intention” buys—what actually brings you joy and satisfaction?

The bottom line: The sports card market can make absolutely no sense in the short term and still be perfectly consistent with speculation. Don’t let someone else’s hype set your compass.

Collect With Intention. Not Compulsion.

#CollectorsMD
In a hype-driven market, let intention be your edge.

—
Follow us on Instagram: @collectorsmd
Subscribe to our Newsletter & Support Group
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