Published September 17, 2025 | By Alyx E, Founder of Collectors MD

What sells isn’t always what plays—and what plays isn’t always what holds value.

In a hobby engineered around hype and “the chase”, the market often prices narratives over performance. Like clockwork, every single season, a young, hyped starting QB is tagged with a speculation premium—regardless of the box score—or before they even step onto an NFL field. Modern day break culture amplifies it: drip-fed supply, endless highlights reels, and hope outpacing the hard data.

Meanwhile, veteran markets without a fresh storyline tend to soften—unless they’re in that rare unicorn tier—superstars, like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. That’s why proven starters like Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, and Matthew Stafford or even retired legends like Joe Montana, Dan Marino, and John Elway often trail young names such as Bryce Young, JJ McCarthy, and Michael Penix Jr.; the hobby consistently prices upside over past performance.

A few key takeaways to stay informed and ahead of the curve in your collecting journey:

• Youth + Starter + Hype = Liquidity.

• Narrative > Performance (until reality catches up, à la CJ Stroud, or a fresh crop of quarterbacks enter the league; Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart, etc.).

• Release cadence (Panini releasing an abundance of high end sets simultaneously) + influencer cycles (various break groups relentlessly pumping players like Trevor Lawrence) shape comps as much as if not more than on-field play.

Cards of young, unproven players selling north of $50K are the definition of speculation—superstar pricing for potential long before there’s even a résumé.

The card collecting hobby isn’t necessarily the problem; the gambling-like risk concentrates in and around break culture and prospect-chasing. Slower approaches—collecting meaningful PC pieces, set building, deliberate purchasing—are more intentional and far less volatile.

Here are a few questions to consider that can help you recalibrate as you navigate today’s fast-moving, hyper-competitive hobby landscape:

• Would I still want this card if the value was cut in half?

• Am I buying the player’s name—or the narrative I want to believe?

• Is this something I truly want and can afford—or am I just trying to keep up?

• If I couldn’t sell for a year—or five—would I be happy owning it regardless of how the player pans out?

For intentional collecting, keep these guiding principles in play:

• Pre-commit budgets and cooldowns before live streams.

• When you feel the urge to chase, choose a “no-spend action” (organize a binder, update inventory, list a card to sell, review the Collectors MD Recovery Guide, or text someone who holds you accountable) and set a 24-hour pause before any future purchase.

• Track outcomes: “hype” buys vs. “intention” buys—what actually brings you joy and satisfaction?

The bottom line: The sports card market can make absolutely no sense in the short term and still be perfectly consistent with speculation. Don’t let someone else’s hype set your compass.

Collect With Intention. Not Compulsion.

#CollectorsMD
In a hype-driven market, let intention be your edge.

—
Follow us on Instagram: @collectorsmd
Subscribe to our Newsletter & Support Group
Join The Conversation On Mantel
Read More Daily Reflections

✍ The Collector’s Crossroads
by Brews & Breaks

Remember when grading used to be simple?
You’d send in a clean card, pray to the cardboard gods, and 60 business days later—boom, PSA 10. Money. Glory. Bragging rights.

Now?
You’re paying $28+ just to maybe get a $50 resale on a card you bought for $10… unless you hit that magical PSA 10. But wait—PSA 10s are only hitting at a 16% clip on some cards? So 1 in 6?

And that’s when you realize:
This might be the most expensive lottery ticket you’ve ever bought.

🎯 The False Hope of the Slab

Everyone online makes it sound easy:

"Just grade it and flip it, bro. Easy money."

Sure, if:

• You know what you’re looking for

• The surface isn’t scratched

• The centering wasn’t drawn by Picasso

• And PSA didn’t spill their coffee on your submission
  

Otherwise? That $10 card just became a $45 slab of disappointment.

📉 Let’s Crunch the Numbers (Before You Cry)

You bought a raw card for $10.
You pay $25 to grade it.
Total investment = $35.

PSA 9 resale: $50
PSA 10 resale: $200
Population odds: 1 PSA 10 for every 5 PSA 9s (aka 1-in-6 chance at gold)

Expected Outcome (Grading 6 Cards):

• 5x PSA 9 = $15 net profit each ($75 total)

• 1x PSA 10 = $165 profit

• Total profit: $240

• Total spent: $210

• Average profit per card: $40

Sounds great, right?

Except…

• If grading costs spike, margins disappear

• If you misjudge condition, you get an 8 and cry into your hobby box

• If PSA decides your card “smelled funny,” it’s a 7.5
  

🤔 So When IS It Worth Grading?

Honestly? Most of the time… it’s not.

Unless you:

• Know how to vet raw cards with a loupe and OCD precision

• Can get the card dirt cheap

• Already know the pop report

• Are playing the long game (rare, iconic cards)
  

Otherwise, you’re spinning the slab wheel.

📏 Will’s Personal Rule of Thumb

If I can’t at least double my total investment with a PSA 9, I’m out.

Let’s keep it real:

“Hope” is not a business model.

That $10 card with a $50 PSA 9 resale better bring me $70 after fees and grading, or I’m keeping it raw, sipping a cold one, and chalking it up to PC.

💀 Don’t Be That Guy

You know him. The guy who sends in 42 base rookies of a backup tight end hoping for PSA 10s…

Only to get 38 PSA 9s, 3 eights, and one “Evidence of Trimming” email from PSA.

Don’t be that guy.

🚨 Final Word: Raw Math > Raw Hype

Before you send in your next card, ask yourself:

• Can this double my investment at PSA 9?

• Am I gambling on a 10 to break even?

• Would this make sense if it came back a 9?
  

If the answer is “No,” then maybe, just maybe… keep it raw, enjoy the card, and stay out of the grading trap.

Because in today’s hobby, sometimes the best play…

Is not playing at all.

Want to see a grading calculator that actually tells you if it’s worth it?
Comment below or DM me. I might just build it.

Until next time,

Keep Sippin’ and Rippin’

— Will @ Brews & Breaks 🍻

#CardGrading #PSA10 #GradingROI #SportsCardInvesting #RawToSlab #IsItWorthGrading #PSAvsSGC #SlabItOrNah #HobbyMath #SlabLife #SportsCardTips #CardCollector101 #HobbyHustle #FlipOrHold #CardFlipping #InvestSmart #ROIbreakdown #CardCollectingWisdom #CardValueTips #HobbyRegrets #GradingFails #DontBeThatGuy #CollectorStruggles #SlabAddict #FOMOisReal #HobbyMathIsHard #GradingAddict #SlabJunkie #PSAParanoia #SportsCards #CardCollector #TradingCards #PSACards #CollectorsCommunity #BuySellTrade #TCGandSports #GradedCards #BreakCulture #BrewsAndBreaks

Hi! My name is Dan, or aka Mr. Playing Cards!

There is no doubt that this is a sensitive question. Actually, I am of the opinion that most card collectors hold on to their collections without any thought of selling them in which case the question may well be academic.

Nevertheless, there are aspects to the question of value that I think merit discussion. The main factor that I consider when acquiring a deck of playing cards is the pleasure that I derive from it - I give no thought as to whether or not any given card or deck will appreciate in value and I am sure most collectors are probably of the same mind set.

I must admit, however, that there is always the vague hope in the back of ones mind that there will be a general appreciation in value over a period of time which should be a reasonable hope and again, one that we should all be entitled to believe in.

Unfortunately, as I will explain below, appreciation in value is not always a reality but since the question may be academic, we should not allow the market place to detract from the pleasures that we derive from our hobby.

I will not attempt to define what makes a deck of playing cards, Sports, Tarot or Non Sport cards valuable beyond stating the obvious, namely that rarity, condition graded or Raw plus historical subject matter are essential elements. It is the latter element, the subject matter, which presents the greatest difficulty when attempting to establish or decide whether or not a given collectible has the potential to be extremely valuable.

It is usually a matter of personal preference, or taste if you will, and since there is no accounting for taste, attempts to affix valuation on that basis will always be difficult. The field of Fine Arts provides many examples where personal preferences clash with otherwise standard “norms”. Works of “fine art” that almost hurt the eye can command prices in the millions of dollars.

I happen to think that at least half of what passes as “fine art” is really just a fine mess. On May 3, 2013 Christie’s, Manhattan, auctioned a “drip and splatter” painting, which is to say a painting executed by the random dripping and splattering of various colored paints upon a canvas. It sold for $58.4 million dollars. That’s FIFTY-EIGHT MILLION, FOUR HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS!!

There remains one important issue that needs to be addressed, namely: Why is it that playing cards, as collectables, have never had the following or achieved even the status and respectability of other collectables such as Art, Sports cards , Pokémon , Non-Sport , Coins, Stamps, Comic books and , other items.

Even sports cards have a greater following, with some single specimens achieving values in the hundreds and even thousands and MILLIONS of dollars like the Wagner Card that sold in 2007 for 2.8M & today even MORE!

Even the less than mint specimens of that card can bring prices in the hundreds of thousands of dollars or more, With the possible exception of the 15th century Visconti-Sforza deck and very few others of the same period, there is nothing in the field of playing cards that could ever realize anything near such prices.

Almost certainly collectors value their collections largely on the basis of the particular personal appeal that the decks hold for them rather than on any considerations of possible appreciation in value.

Nevertheless, I do not see why the field should be denied a legitimate standing in the market place or why, for that matter, the values of certain rare playing card singles , or complete decks with rare jokers either fail to appreciate!

  Finally, I would like to say that investing in historical playing cards is very rewarding and knowing the true value understanding the history for what they can offer manifests into a strong passion to buy more!

It is difficult investing into any type of collectible these days, however, to establish any sort of a price baseline from certain, let’s say, 18th century cards, old books, limited number editions runs or just modern raw pulls, all because unfortunately, the VALUE is now now determined using the INTERNET!

GOLDEN RULE! COLLECT & INVEST WHAT YOU LOVE - NEVER LOSE YOUR PASSION AS TIME CHANGES EVERYTHING!

I've recently started using Robinhood again for investing, Stocks, Bonds, some Crypto..

They have a promotion to earn a solid Gold card... So I want it, plug in to the future.. shameless self promotion but still wanted to share... Referral link below for those interested.

I reserved my spot for the new Robinhood Gold Card! Here's my link so you can get access too.

https://robinhood.com/creditcard?referral_code=4d943c67