THE NEXT BIG THING!
My father taught me that predicting it was pure luck, as no one can determine what the public will go for. Logic and analytics don’t work when it comes to what the Next Big Thing will be.
So, for today’s lesson, come and sit around.
Card collecting has been very popular among the broad public since the late 1800’s. And clearly Sports Cards have been dominant during most of that time. However, there have been many Non-Sports Cards throughout the same time that attracted many collectors.
Throughout, collectors and the smaller group of dealers loyally espoused that Non-Sports Cards would rise and challenge Sports Cards. Well, it never happened. While the Non-Sports Card collectors remained and continued to collect, the mainstream and their dealers stayed primarily with Sports.
UNTIL NOW it seems.
Not long ago, it would have been rare to find a Non-Spots Card in a dealer’s case at the National Convention. And if you did, it was maybe one or two cards. There just because the dealer wanted to get rid of it.
Just back from the National and clearly Non-Sports Cards have grown up quite a bit. There were quite a few dealers, even those with their primary Sports Cards dominant, that had inventory of many, many different Non-Sports titles.
When interviewing some of the dealers throughout the show, the attitude and the dialogue was the same. Sports Cards have reached a ceiling. Prices are high and their populations might not really justify it. There are about 25,000 Michael Jordan 1986 Fleer rookie cards that have been graded by PSA, which about 320 have been graded as 10’s with values in the mid six figures. That’s impressive. Yeah. Sports cards are cool, but...
But then I look at Mars Attacks, one of the most popular Non-Sports sets. The #1 card has a total population of approximately 400 cards, no 10’s, one 9, and eighteen 8’s, and the value of an 8 is maybe $20,000. Hmmm. Okay, maybe Mars Attacks doesn’t have the draw as sports.
But then I saw my friend at the National. One of the best known and knowledgeable Card collectors, both Sports and Non-Sports. You must be careful with him. When you ask him a question, you had better listen to the answer. I had bought a Non-Sports card and wanted to tell him and show it to him, but I feared that the lecture I would receive would cut me to my knees. Was I ready for that? Well, I was excited and had to show him. What did you get? he asked me.
I got a 1940 A&M Wix Cinema Cavalcade Tobacco card #169 of the Wizard of Oz PSA 8. The first depiction of the Wizard of Oz in a trading card. The Wizard of Oz rookie card.
Within this daunting set of 250 different cinema related cards there were just two Wizard of Oz cards. Card #169, a small T-206 sized card, which depicted Dorothy, Toto, Cowardly Lion, Scarecrow and Tin Man. The whole crew. And card #168, a regular size trading card depicting Dorothy, Tin man, and Scarecrow. My sense was that Wizard of Oz was global. Everyone has watched it. Everyone knows it. And most importantly, its longevity is continuing with the likes of the theatrical productions of Wicked, and now the movie to follow. My eyes popped when I looked at the populations. The #168 had only 23 total cards graded by PSA. No 10’s, 2 nines, five 8’s. The #169 had only 22 total cards graded by PSA. No tens, No nines, 3 eights, 3 sevens.
Don’t let me lose you but this sidebar is important.
DON’T CONFUSE RARITY WITH POPULAR INTEREST
There are many other movies, TV shows, radio programs, comic books, cartoons and more that are or were popular at some point. But most fade away. Take “Gone with the Wind”. A classic that people cite, but few people today can give you details, tell you who was in it, what it was about, etc. Only that it was a classic film.
Superman and Batman make my point more easily. Created in 1939, both have continued generationally. Movies, comic books, cartoons, TV shows and more. All these efforts have perpetuated their popularity, and kids and adults today both continue to love them and want to see them, therefore want to collect them.
I believe that Wizard of Oz is in the same category.