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sweetpea

May 7

Watches vs Cards

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Another good chart from Altan Insight. This time looking at indexed growth of overall watches vs. high end cards. I have lots of questions on sample size and the basket that makes up these two indicies, but I do think their call out of both following a similar trend. However, I do wonder if high end cards and overall watches are similar consumer bases. I've seen many of the F1 collectors are also into watches. Or could it be the average price point of a watch matches the price point for high end cards?

Either way, I do wonder if we are finally seeing a bottom to card prices. The peak to trough for F1 is down 50%+ but noticed prices for the benchmark product, 2020 Topps F1 Sapphire pricing has held and starting to tick up. Please let's see pricing recover!

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Watch Brand Value Retention Analysis

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Saw this on another post and thought it was interesting. I am not surprised about Patek or Rolex, but I'm surprised to see Cartier and Lange. Not shocked on IWC. I like their Mark series but I suspect its because they have a breadth of price points and that is the common driver for why brands hold value vs others -- breadth in price points vs just super high end. The # of watches would indicate that but Rolex defies that. How much is it brand popularity and marketing?

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To sign or not to sign -- The value of on card auto

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Was reading the latest Alts & Ends Newsletter and they highlighted something I think will become increasingly demanded. With the print run of modern cards and the proliferation and popularity of Rookie autos, I think vintage on card autos will see increased interest.

Vintage cards have a far less population/print runs. To then add one that has an on card auto (No such thing as stickers back in the 50's), coupled it being a HOF rookie card, you have the makings of multiple nested scarcity.

This recent auction sale of Lou Gehrig's 1933 R319 Goudey highlights the power. While both are graded, the one graded only for Auto sold more than a PSA 8. Bear in mind a PSA 8 on a 33' Goudey is scarce at pop 14.

This is what makes collectibles so amazing. A card can have additional properties beyond the foundation of the card. A grade is well known addition, but an auto is just a multiplier on top of what is already a multiplier of the card grade.

My prediction is we will see increased records set for vintage on card autos!

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Does Grading Even Matter?

Link preview image for Junk Slab Era โ€“ Does grading even matter?

pancakebreakfaststats.com

Junk Slab Era โ€“ Does grading even matter?

Below is the dataset used for this analysis, and pre built data visualizations, the export feature exports to empowers you the collector, flipper and/or investor to grab insights catered to your needs ( works best in desktop mode.

@EPonMantel thanks to Evan for turning me to this site. Great analysis and they just did one on the role of grade and the junx wax. It was something I was talking about the dilution of the PSA 10 or gem mint given the population of gem rate% skyrocketing vs vintage.
Worth reading. The one area I wish they dug more into is on the role of eye appeal and if the print run and all the sets of modern where Corbin Carroll will have literally 50+ "rookie" cards based on set or by global limit (i.e. /5, /100 etc) vs. vintage where there is only one rookie (i.e. Hank Aaron is 54 Topps and that is it). The sheer number of modern rookies dilute the power of Rookie values.
https://pancakebreakfaststats.com/2024/03/13/junk-slab-era-does-grading-even-matter/

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Watch Market 2023 Data

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This is from a post on LinkedIn by Altan Insights (3/5/24).
Crazy to see the market dominance by Rolex...
๐Ÿ‘‘ With a record-breaking 2023, Rolex now controls 30% of the luxury market. The acclaimed Swiss brand surpassed $10 billion in sales for the first time in the company's 118-year history.
โŒš The "Big 5" of the watch world, Rolex, Cartier, Omega, AP, and Patek, now command more than 55% of the luxury market.
๐Ÿ“ˆ Rolex produced 1.3 million timepieces in 2023 as sales increased by 11% over 2022.
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Do you think the massive increase in production of Rolex watches will hurt values? Or there is simply such high demand that it won't matter and they will keep selling at a record pace?
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Original Post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/altan-insights_with-a-record-breaking-2023-rolex-now-activity-7170797723565195264-CXEE?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

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