I’ve been experimenting with a new way to visualize ePack data to see if we can spot market inefficiencies before they become obvious. Instead of just looking at the "Buy Now" price, I wanted to map the supply chain. specifically, how many cards are locked in collections vs how many are flooding the marketplace.

I used the new 2025-26 Upper Deck Rookie Debut set as the test case. It’s an ePack exclusive release (27-card checklist, 3 cards per pack) that dropped recently, making it the perfect closed ecosystem to analyze.

I pulled the live population volumes from their marketplace and built this dashboard to track "Market Fluidity." Here is what the data says.

The Methodology: Calculating the Print Run

Since Upper Deck doesn’t publish total print runs for unnumbered base cards, we have to reverse-engineer it using the odds and serial numbered print runs.

We know that there are 27 players in the checklist and that 5 of the 6 inserts are serial numbered, with the 6th (“It’s Your Time!”) being assigned 1:3 odds. Since the total print volume of the serial numbered inserts would make up the remaining 2:3 insert odds, we can determine the total volume of the print of the “It’s Your Time!” insert.

The base set has 2:1 odds, so to get to the total base set print volume, we can take the total insert volume and double it.

The Insights: Base vs. Gold Divergence

The dashboard view compares the Actual Market Supply (blue bars) against an "Expected Supply" curve (vertical grey lines). The results are wildly different for low vs. high-end cards.

Bullish on Base: The Base cards are surprisingly scarce. Only 69.8% are currently fluid in the marketplace, which is well below the ~85% expected for a new ePack release. This means collectors are actually locking the base rookies rather than flooding the market.

Bearish on Gold: The Gold Parallels (/49) are flooding the market. You would expect a /49 to be vaulted immediately, but 55.7% of the entire print run is currently listed for trade. This is higher than the expected rate (~50%), suggesting that people are flipping the "hits" to fund their next pack or to chase achievements.

TL;DR: The market is "Scarcity Protected" on the low end but "Oversupplied" on the high end. If you are buying, the Base cards might hold value better than you think, but there are way more Gold inserts available than there should be.

We’re re-uploading every episode of our podcasts—one per day—to make sure our new members and followers can catch up from the beginning.

If you’re new to Collectors MD, these conversations are where it all started—honest, unfiltered discussions about the realities of collecting, recovery, and rebuilding a healthier hobby.

We’ll be sharing episodes from The Collector’s Compass & Behind The Breaks covering everything from gambling parallels in collecting, to mental health, to how we find purpose beyond the chase.

Whether you’ve been here since day one or just joined the movement, this is your chance to revisit the stories that shaped our mission.

Subscribe on YouTube, follow along daily, like, comment, and help us spread the message: the hobby gets healthier when we do.

Collect With Intention. Not Compulsion.

The Collector’s Compass #10: The Future Of The Hobby With Card Ladder

#CollectorsMD | #RipResponsibly | #CollectResponsibly

We’re re-uploading every episode of our podcasts—one per day—to make sure our new members and followers can catch up from the beginning.

If you’re new to Collectors MD, these conversations are where it all started—honest, unfiltered discussions about the realities of collecting, recovery, and rebuilding a healthier hobby.

We’ll be sharing episodes from The Collector’s Compass & Behind The Breaks covering everything from gambling parallels in collecting, to mental health, to how we find purpose beyond the chase.

Whether you’ve been here since day one or just joined the movement, this is your chance to revisit the stories that shaped our mission.

Subscribe on YouTube, follow along daily, like, comment, and help us spread the message: the hobby gets healthier when we do.

Collect With Intention. Not Compulsion.

The Collector’s Compass #9: Intentional Collecting With Card Ladder

#CollectorsMD | #RipResponsibly | #CollectResponsibly

In this episode of The Collector’s Compass, we continue our conversation with Chris “HOJ” McGill—co-founder of Card Ladder and one of the most respected voices in the sports card hobby.

In Part I, Chris shared his collecting journey, the origins of House of Jordans, and how Card Ladder was built on data and transparency. In Part II, we go deeper into the culture, language, and future of the hobby.

Chris shares openly about:

-The newly announced Collectors MD × Card Ladder affiliate partnership—and what it means for intentional collecting.

-Why the National has become a metaphor for today’s hobby—where spectacle often drowns out substance.

-The difference between investing and speculating in sports cards—and why precise language matters for kids and newcomers.

-How partnerships and “natural allies” like COMC and Burbank help foster healthier ecosystems.

The future of the hobby won't be defined by hype—it will be shaped by balance, ethics, and intention.

Subscribe, comment, and join the movement. And remember to collect with intention, not compulsion.

Watch The Episode On YouTube

Learn More & Join The Movement:

Website: https://www.collectorsmd.com

Socials: https://www.hopp.bio/collectorsmd

Weekly Meeting Sign-Up: https://bit.ly/45koiMX

Contact: info@collectorsmd.com

YouTube: @collectorsmd

Instagram: @collectorsmd

Follow Chris & Card Ladder:

YouTube: ‪@chris_hoj‬ | ‪@CardLadder

‬Instagram: @chris_hoj | @cardladder

Download Card Ladder

#CollectorsMD | #RipResponsibly | #CollectResponsibly

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sjEIfP8DKk&t=3000s

In this episode of The Collector’s Compass, we’re honored to welcome Chris “HOJ” McGill—co-founder of Card Ladder and one of the most respected voices in the sports card hobby.

Chris’s journey started like many of ours: chasing his childhood grail, the 1993-94 Ultra Scoring Kings Michael Jordan. That passion evolved into content creation with House Of Jordans and eventually into Card Ladder, a platform built on data, transparency, and a vision for long-term hobby sustainability.

In this conversation, Chris shares openly about:

-The difference between investing and speculating in sports cards—and why words matter.

-Why ethical data, transparency, and privacy are non-negotiable in today’s hobby.

-How community, thoughtful content, and responsible guardrails can build a healthier ecosystem for collectors and businesses alike.

-We’ll also explore Chris’s own collection, his philosophy on set building and personal collecting, and his perspective on where the hobby is heading.

Whether you’re a seasoned collector, a data-driven hobbyist, or someone navigating the noise of modern collecting, this episode is a reminder that the future of the hobby depends on more than adrenaline—it depends on ethics, balance, and intention.

Subscribe, comment, and join the movement. And remember to collect with intention, not compulsion.

Watch The Episode On YouTube

Learn More & Join The Movement:

Website: https://www.collectorsmd.com

Socials: https://www.hopp.bio/collectorsmd

Weekly Meeting Sign-Up: https://bit.ly/45koiMX

Contact: info@collectorsmd.com

YouTube: @collectorsmd

Instagram: @collectorsmd

Follow Chris & Card Ladder:

YouTube: @Chris_HOJ | @CardLadder

Instagram: @Chris_HOJ | @CardLadder

#CollectorsMD | #RipResponsibly | #CollectResponsibly

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYMgIx9kj5o